Insights

US CPI Inflation: volatility and weights

At long last, the US inflation rate appears to have peaked, but at a much higher rate and much later than anticipated. Why have these large forecasting errors been made and what now is the outlook for inflation? In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at these issues.

At the helm: Boris Herrmann and Giorgio Pradelli discuss sailing, business and life

In the 3rd edition of ‘Caminada. Das Magazin’, Andreas Caminada’s lifestyle magazine, published last week, there was very special feature. When extreme sailor Boris Herrmann met Giorgio Pradelli, EFG International CEO at Monaco Ocean Week recently, they had much to discuss. Both are at the helm of sport and business, worlds which have many parallels, and passionate about sailing. The conversation explored their shared values and the enduring allure of the sea, then touched on everything from sailing solo around the world, to the importance of preserving ocean health and protecting our climate.

Is the UK at risk of recession?

The Bank of England recently updated its growth projections in its May monetary policy report, forecasting a contraction in GDP in 2023. In this Macro Flash Note, Sam Jochim looks at the uncertainty surrounding these projections and the main headwinds facing the UK economy.

Launch of the 3rd edition of ‘Caminada. Das Magazin’

US inflation: Past the peak, but then what?

US inflation appears finally to have peaked, but how quickly will it decline in coming months? Commodity prices remain high and global supply chain bottlenecks are still evident. Here four factors on the inflation outlook are analysed.

Misunderstanding long-run inflation expectations

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at long-run inflation expectations and notes that they depend on short-run inflation expectations. Using the Michigan Survey of 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations as an illustration, he shows that the entire rise in 5-year expectations is due to the rise in 1-year expectations. There is no reason to conclude that the public expects inflation in the future to be higher than in the past.