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From Predictability to Uncertainty: Three Questions for Jon Sopel

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From Predictability to Uncertainty: Three Questions for Jon Sopel

Jon Sopel is a political journalist, podcaster and author.

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Based on your long experience as a foreign correspondent and political journalist, what worries you most when looking at the current geopolitical landscape?
What I find most disconcerting about the current political landscape is the total lack of predictability about what might happen next. For years, there was certainty over NATO. There was certainty that if one country did X, another country would do Y. We knew which nations stood together and which alliances existed. It all felt quite solid. And during the first Cold War, when we faced the threat of nuclear arms, there was still a degree of certainty and formality about how the two sides interacted. Looking at the present situation, it partly feels like the “Wild West” at times. We don’t know whether NATO will survive. We don’t know if the US would come to the aid of NATO allies. And recent tensions around Greenland have called the future of the alliance into question even more. All of this uncertainty makes it much more difficult to plan because you don’t know what the main actors might do next.

You were the BBC's North America Editor from 2014 to 2021 and covered the first Trump presidency. How has political journalism changed since you took over that post in Washington a decade ago?
In theory, political journalism should not have changed, but in reality, I suspect it probably has because of what happened in America - particularly in President Trump’s first term in office. During that time, journalism divided itself into those who were allies of Donald Trump and those who challenged his views. I think that runs contrary to journalistic principles. Our job in the media is to hold those in power to account and to do so rigorously and without compromise - but also fairly, no matter what your political colour. In short, we need to stay calm and cool and explain to the public why an issue matters.

Was there a moment in your career that fundamentally altered your view of power or politics?
I think it was in 2016, with the Brexit vote in the UK and the election of Donald Trump as President of the US. In the case of Brexit, it was hard to believe that we would see the end of a 50-year relationship with the European Union that had brought the UK greater prosperity. The UK’s economic interests were closely tied to those of Europe and yet people voted for Brexit. And in the US, we saw Donald Trump, who had never held any elected office whatsoever, win the 2016 presidential election. At the time, those events – maybe driven by populist forces – created a sense of uncertainty and, more importantly, demonstrated a growing sense of public disillusionment with conventional politics. I believe this marked a fundamental shift as globalised politics, which seemed like such a winning bet for so many people, actually left a lot of people behind.

About

Jon Sopel is an award-winning political journalist who has spent around four decades covering global events and interviewing heads of state and leading politicians. He worked for the BBC for more than 16 years, appearing in many of its top news programmes on television and radio. This includes spending eight years in the US as its North America Editor. In 2022, he launched the popular podcast The News Agents with Emily Maitlis. He has written a number of books, including a biography of Tony Blair and an analysis of President Trump’s first term in office.

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