Many commentators doubt that the sanctions adopted against Russia after it invaded Ukraine are effective. They point out that high energy prices caused by the sanctions have lowered Russian export volumes but increased export revenues. Furthermore, they argue that the reorientation of energy exports from Europe to other markets, including China, India and Turkey, provides Moscow with sufficient resources to finance the war in Ukraine and support the domestic economy. The ineffectiveness of the sanctions is also evident in the 30% appreciation of the rouble since the beginning of the war and in the upward revision of Russia 2022-23 GDP estimates that would only see a short-lived contraction.
Yet, the data highlight the negative impact of sanctions on the Russian economy: after the invasion of Ukraine, growth collapsed and inflation surged despite low local energy prices.