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Consumer sentiment: a lagging indicator Investment Insights • MFN

Consumer sentiment: a lagging indicator

The most recent release of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey data saw the headline number dip slightly, comprised of an increase in the Current component to the highest since October 2021 offset by a marginal decline in the Expected component. Nonetheless, the headline number remains in an upward trend, having bottomed in June last year. The strength of the number is sometimes cited as a reason to be optimistic about the outlook for consumption and, by association, US equities. However, what do the statistics tell us about the relationships between consumer sentiment survey data, equity market performance and measures of personal consumption? Daniel Murray explores these relationships in this Macro Flash Note.

Daniel Murray

3 min read
US inflation pressures continue to abate Investment Insights • MFN

US inflation pressures continue to abate

Great care must be exercised when commenting on the CPI data for July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that headline inflation was 3.2% year-on-year (y/y) and core inflation was 4.7%. (Using seasonally adjusted data, headline inflation was 3.3% and core inflation was 4.7% y/y.) Since headline inflation was 3.0% in June, it is easy to conclude that inflation pressures intensified.

Stefan Gerlach

3 min read

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