Insights

Surging energy prices and stagflation

Energy prices are under pressure and many observers fear the return of stagflation, a situation where inflation is high and economic growth stagnates. The price of Brent crude and the US WTI have both doubled in a year. The price of natural gas in the US market has also doubled since October 2020. How have these rapid rises come about and are fears of stagflation warranted or exaggerated?

Southbank Sinfonia pass the baton to future generations

Mexico’s energy sector reform creates uncertainty for investors

Mexican President Lopez Obrador recently submitted a constitutional reform bill to increase government control over the energy sector. The proposed reform would allocate to state-owned companies over half of the electricity market and would eliminate requirements for clean energy production. In this Macro Flash Note, Joaquin Thul describes the key aspects of the reform proposal and explains why this increases uncertainty for investors.

Advisory business in the post-corona world

In the following interview, Michael Krinner, Global Head of Advisory & Sales at EFG, talks about the current trends in advisory and why EFG has recently revamped its advisory services*.

Country characteristics and Covid mortality

The severity of the Covid pandemic has varied sharply between countries. Stefan Gerlach and Joaquin Thul ask what factors may explain these differences. They find that as much as about half of the variation between countries in Covid mortality is explained by four variables: the median age of the population, tourist arrivals, inequality and a measure of government effectiveness.

First reactions to German vote

In this Macro Flash Note, GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the results of the German elections. There are two main takeaways. The first is that the tail risk of a leftist coalition has dissipated making only coalitions encompassing parties from both sides of the aisle a viable path. The second is that the Greens and the FDP, the two would-be junior partners, will be the joint kingmakers of the next Chancellor.