Middle East Updates

From geopolitics to portfolios: what the Middle East events mean for investors

Daniel Murray, Deputy CIO was joined by Stefan Gerlach, Chief Economist to present the latest EFG Macroeconomic & Strategy Outlook on 01 April 2026. During the session Daniel and Stefan provided a comprehensive review of the events in the Middle East, spanning the market reaction, the impact on economic growth and inflation expectations, and central bank analysis. In addition, the latest House View was presented, highlighting our asset allocation preferences during these volatile times.

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US and Iran agree a fragile ceasefire while negotiations start

On Tuesday 7 April the US and Iran announced an agreement for a two-week ceasefire that would open the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). This has been the first diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict started in late February. The news came just before the deadline set by the US President for Iran to reopen the strait, following threats of strong military actions against Iran’s power plants and bridges.

Middle East

In the section below, you will find a selection of Insight articles on the current Middle East situation, written by EFG specialists to help you understand the key developments and their implications for markets.

Strongmen, sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz: Navigating today's new geopolitical order

In this Future Leaders edition of the Beyond the Benchmark podcast (recorded as of early June 2026), Moz Afzal speaks with Nicholas Hopton.

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The asymmetries of the Strait of Hormuz blockade

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial traffic for nearly two months.

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US March CPI: Energy driven inflation delays Fed easing

US headline inflation rose sharply in March, driven by energy, with core inflation remaining elevated.

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European inflation on the rise – how the energy mix matters for economies

The March consumer price index data show the first effects of the energy price shock due to the war in the Persian Gulf.

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Fool me twice: Why Europe’s gas vulnerability endures

The US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February 2026 have delivered Europe’s second major gas supply shock in four years. In this InFocus, Haya Kamal examines Europe’s continued dependency on energy imports, including natural gas, and the case for an accelerated renewables transition.

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Looking through the noise: Thoughts on the current crisis

The joint US–Israeli campaign in the Middle East adds to recent destabilising events but is harder for markets to assess due to uncertainty over its duration and outcome. In this note, Daniel Murray presents our updated scenario analysis, outlining possible outcomes, narratives, market environments, and our subjective probability assessments.

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Central banks pause, but remain on guard

Last week, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank all left interest rates unchanged. In this Macro Flash note, Stefan Gerlach, Chief Economist, explains why these decisions reflect a small number of shared underlying factors rather than coordination.

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BoE unanimously on hold, but where next amid Middle East uncertainty?

On 19 March the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep Bank rate on hold at 3.75% as markets expected. However, the MPC has left the door open for further changes to its monetary policy in either direction. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist and Strategist Joaquin Thul discusses what lies ahead for the BoE.

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War in Iran: How might central banks react?

The US–Israeli strike on Iran raises the question of how central banks may respond. Here EFG Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach comments on how central banks might think of this event.

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US-Israel offensive against Iran: Possible scenarios and economic implications

Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, with President Donald Trump stating that the objective was to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

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