He noted that the ECB had successfully lowered inflation, which had fallen from more than 10% two years ago to 2.4% in December. The Governing Council expected an average harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate of 2.1% in 2025, which would be very close to its target.
While this is of course merely his view, he is arguably the most influential national central bank governor on the Governing Council and there is no doubt that his views will carry considerable weight.
He is quite right to stress the sharp fall in eurozone inflation. Monthly inflation rates in the second half of 2024 have indeed been compatible with price stability. The average monthly rate of headline inflation was 0.17%; for services it was 0.25%; and for core inflation it was 0.18%.1 If sustained, that implies that headline and core inflation would reach 2.1%, and service inflation 3.0%, by January 2026.