The JOLTS data shows no impact yet of US Tariffs

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on 3 June, providing a snapshot of labour market conditions at the end of April. This release was particularly anticipated because it covers the period just after the massive tariff increases announced by the Trump administration on 2 April, dubbed “Liberation Day.” Seven days later, these tariffs were put on hold for 90 days, with a lower interim rate imposed during this period.

Nonetheless, uncertainty remains elevated. Many observers were eager to see whether the trade restrictions, or the uncertainty caused by this abrupt policy shift, had begun to affect the labour market.

The short answer, for now, appears to be no. The labour market is holding up well, with no sign in the April data that the tariff shock has weakened hiring activity or labour demand.

Over the past year, job openings have stabilised in the 7–8m range, suggesting a labour market that has cooled from its post-pandemic peak but is still fundamentally strong. April’s data reinforced this view, with job openings rising to 7.4m, up from 7.2m in March and above market expectations.

Other key indicators in the report showed little change. Hires stood at 5.6m, and total separations (the number of people leaving their jobs for any reason) were 5.3m. Within separations, quits held steady at 3m, and layoffs and discharges remained near 1.8m.

Chart 1. Labour market 

Source: BLS, data as of 12 June

As the graph shows, JOLTS is a volatile series, with job openings sometimes swinging by hundreds of thousands from month to month. As such, it is more useful to focus on the broader trend than on individual data points. The graph below shows that the six-month moving averages of job openings, hires and separations have remained stable since September 2024.

Chart 2. Labour markets, 6 month averages 

Source: EFG calculations on BLS data, data as of 12 June

The quits rate, which captures voluntary resignations as a share of total employment, was steady at 2.0% — exactly its long-run average since 2000 — and well below the peak of 3.0% during the COVID-19 pandemic. This measure is often seen as a barometer of worker confidence and a leading indicator of wage pressure.

Chart 3. Quit rate

Source: BLS, data as of 12 June

The job openings-to-unemployed ratio remained essentially unchanged just above 1 and very close to its mean since 2000 (0.97).

Chart 4. Job openings-to-unemployment ratio

Source: FRED and BLS, data as of 12 June

Overall, the April JOLTS data point to a broadly stable and resilient labour market. There is no evidence that the tariff announcements, or uncertainty caused by them, have led to weaker hiring or greater layoffs. That may change, of course, as the full impact of trade restrictions ripples through global supply chains and consumer sentiment.

The Fed is likely to interpret these data as supportive of its wait-and-see approach. With inflation subdued and the labour market broadly stable, the Fed has little reason to adjust policy immediately. The bigger question is how long this stability can be maintained, given the uncertainty surrounding trade policy.