Insights

At the helm: Boris Herrmann and Giorgio Pradelli discuss sailing, business and life

In the 3rd edition of ‘Caminada. Das Magazin’, Andreas Caminada’s lifestyle magazine, published last week, there was very special feature. When extreme sailor Boris Herrmann met Giorgio Pradelli, EFG International CEO at Monaco Ocean Week recently, they had much to discuss. Both are at the helm of sport and business, worlds which have many parallels, and passionate about sailing. The conversation explored their shared values and the enduring allure of the sea, then touched on everything from sailing solo around the world, to the importance of preserving ocean health and protecting our climate.

Is the UK at risk of recession?

The Bank of England recently updated its growth projections in its May monetary policy report, forecasting a contraction in GDP in 2023. In this Macro Flash Note, Sam Jochim looks at the uncertainty surrounding these projections and the main headwinds facing the UK economy.

Launch of the 3rd edition of ‘Caminada. Das Magazin’

US inflation: Past the peak, but then what?

US inflation appears finally to have peaked, but how quickly will it decline in coming months? Commodity prices remain high and global supply chain bottlenecks are still evident. Here four factors on the inflation outlook are analysed.

Misunderstanding long-run inflation expectations

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at long-run inflation expectations and notes that they depend on short-run inflation expectations. Using the Michigan Survey of 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations as an illustration, he shows that the entire rise in 5-year expectations is due to the rise in 1-year expectations. There is no reason to conclude that the public expects inflation in the future to be higher than in the past.

How fast will the FOMC raise interest rates?

With CPI inflation in the US exceeding 8% year-on-year in March and with interest rates at 0.25%-0.5% the Federal Reserve is in a tightening mode, having first hiked rates by 25bps on 16 March. But how fast might it raise interest rates from here? To address this question, it is useful to review how the Fed has behaved in past tightening episodes.