Insights

“Excess” savings and the outlook for consumption

The Covid pandemic has been associated with a rise in savings rates across the world to exceptional levels. What are the prospects for consumer spending?

A political crisis threatens Colombia’s recovery in 2021

One challenge governments will face in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic is to return the economies to a sustainable growth path. In the case of Colombia, real GDP grew by 1.1% in Q1-2021 in comparison with the same quarter last year, representing a considerable recovery from a decline of almost 4% in Q4-2020. However, weakening public finances, social protests and a political crisis could undermine GDP growth in 2021. In this Macro Flash Note, Joaquin Thul looks at the recent events.

Partnership with "Caminada. Das Magazin"

US Inflation Comment

Yesterday’s US CPI release was much stronger than expected with headline inflation (measured as the year-on-year % change in the CPI) at its highest since September 2008 and core CPI inflation (ex food and energy) the highest since 1996. This has bolstered fears about a return to the stagflationary conditions of the 1970s which saw the unpalatable combination of high unemployment and high inflation coexist for a number of years. Rising commodity prices, supply chain problems (such as for semi-conductors), declining global trade and commercial rigidities resulting from Covid restrictions are all cited as reasons why we should be concerned about the rise in inflation being more than transitory.

EFG extends its partnership with Team Malizia to 2026

Setting sail for a ‘race we must win’

Covid, Brexit and UK-EU trade

How has UK - EU trade developed during Covid and following the end of the Brexit transition period? In this Macro Flash Note, EFG chief economist Stefan Gerlach looks at the data. The main conclusion is that after weakness during the pandemic and in the immediate aftermath of the end of the transition period, trade has recovered substantially, but not fully.