
Deciphering the Fed
The FOMC meeting on 20th March delivered few surprises. However, this is in contrast with the highly uncertain build-up to that meeting that saw rate expectations gyrate wildly. In this Macro Flash Note, Daniel Murray discusses the outcome of that meeting and the Fed’s decision-making process more broadly. A simple framework is proposed for thinking about how the Fed assesses whether or not to change policy, contingent on the two explicit elements of its mandate: inflation and the state of the labour market.