Insights

Trends, news, analysis and insight brought to you by our network of global experts.

The IMF’s latest attempt to boost fiscal spending Investment Insights

The IMF’s latest attempt to boost fiscal spending

In August 2021, the IMF approved a general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) equivalent to USD 650 billion to boost global liquidity and support the global economic recovery. Although this represented the largest SDR allocation in the Fund’s history, it went almost unnoticed. In this Macro Flash Note, Joaquin Thul argues the additional liquidity will help lower-income economies to partially offset the negative impact of Covid-19, but it is unlikely to affect the recovery of developed and emerging markets.

Joaquin Thul

6 min read
Castillo’s victory increases uncertainty in Peru and could delay recovery Investment Insights

Castillo’s victory increases uncertainty in Peru and could delay recovery

After more than two weeks of vote counting, Pedro Castillo will be announced as the next President of Peru. Castillo, a left-wing candidate and former primary school teacher who entered politics in 2017, beat Keiko Fujimori by a margin of less than 45,000 votes, approximately 0.2% of the total. He is supported by the rural areas of the country and benefited from public discontent with growing income inequalities. In this Macro Flash Note, Joaquin Thul looks at the potential implications of the election result.

Joaquin Thul

6 min read
A political crisis threatens Colombia’s recovery in 2021 Investment Insights

A political crisis threatens Colombia’s recovery in 2021

One challenge governments will face in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic is to return the economies to a sustainable growth path. In the case of Colombia, real GDP grew by 1.1% in Q1-2021 in comparison with the same quarter last year, representing a considerable recovery from a decline of almost 4% in Q4-2020. However, weakening public finances, social protests and a political crisis could undermine GDP growth in 2021. In this Macro Flash Note, Joaquin Thul looks at the recent events.

Joaquin Thul

6 min read
Sentiment turns negative in Brazil as politics take centre stage Investment Insights

Sentiment turns negative in Brazil as politics take centre stage

The campaign for the 2022 Presidential election in Brazil has unofficially started. In recent weeks, sentiment has turned against Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro following a series of events and decisions made by the divisive South American leader. Markets have reacted negatively to the increased uncertainty which could threaten the future of his reform agenda. Lack of control of the Covid-19 pandemic could also delay the economic recovery in 2021. In this Macro Flash Note, Joaquin Thul discusses the outlook for Brazil.

Joaquin Thul

7 min read

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