Entrenched inflation – what it means for Fed policy and Treasury yields

The US consumer price index (CPI) data released on 10 June 2026 was consistent with strong underlying inflationary trends, despite optimism in some quarters regarding the monthly changes. There are several points worth highlighting contained within the release, as Deputy Chief Investment Officer Daniel Murray highlights in this Macro Flash Note.

The importance of euro area inflation expectations

In this Macro Flash Note, EFG's Chief Economist Stefan Gerlach examines how inflation expectations in the euro area have evolved since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

Energy shocks and political turmoil

Geopolitical conflicts have driven sharp increases in prices for UK energy inputs, which could lead to higher inflation in the medium-term and force the Bank of England to raise rates.

Trump-Xi summit kicks the can down the road

The Trump-Xi summit was watched closely by analysts for potential hints on trade and geopolitical issues. Overall, the outcome was disappointing with the visit of Xi to the US in September being the main takeaway. In this Macro Flash Note, Economist Sam Jochim summarises the meetings.

No country can embargo your wind or sunshine

The Middle East conflict is a reminder that fossil fuel dependence is not only a climate risk, but a strategic vulnerability. That makes the energy transition a question of sovereignty, energy security and investment relevance. When energy flows are disrupted, the consequences are not limited to oil markets.

Oil and digital sovereignty: the reasons behind the UAE leaving OPEC

In a surprise move, the UAE has left the OPEC oil cartel. While the oil price reaction has been muted, the longer-term implications go far beyond the oil market. In this Macro Flash Note, Senior Economist and Strategist GianLuigi Mandruzzato looks at the strategic rationale behind the UAE’s move and its potential impact on the oil market and geopolitics.